MU is not priced rationally, but neither are many other stocks competing for investors funds, thus if you want to short, the trick is to find the most irrationally price stock, and short it only after a break down of the pattern. MU surely fit, I doubt it will go much above the $42 area, and if one shorts here a stop loss should be in place just above $42, barely 5% higher than the current price. The more important thing however is the new "scenario", once I can put my hand on the full warrants document (and it should appear as an 8k soon). Just like two years ago (MU was at the same price of $40 before the split), I had a scenario similar to today's (forced conversion) that will bring MU to the $110/$120 area, I was wrong, it went to $190 or so in presplit. Right now, I have a minimum of $80, but once the 8K comes out, I will update this. This is a two years or more scenario, depending on the 8K.
Zeev |
