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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.554-4.1%Dec 8 3:59 PM EST
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To: JDN who wrote (5280)12/5/1999 7:20:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (3) of 10293
 
Yeah I know the drill. January effect, election year, new paradigm, etc.

I've never considered any of these in my entire career except as interesting sidebars. There is one simple law of human behavior which overwhelms everything: fear and greed.

I buy aggressively when there's an extreme amount of fear (Oct. 1998).

I sell aggressively when there's an extreme amount of greed.

In general, it's easier (for me) to feel out an intermediate bottom (again Oct. 1998) than a secular bottom (mid 70s). It's easier to feel out a secular top (Japan equities crash, the "nifty-fifty" debacle, etc.) than an intermediate or short-term top.

So I'm really not so sure if we are near a short-term top (I *think* so). Though it's relatively certain that the late 90's will be seen as a secular top of some sort when the inevitable shakeout in the net businesses begins.

If I think that my house is valued at a million, and I have buyers pounding at my door offering three...I'll pack my bags. The new buyer may get five or six the next day but I'm not complaining.

When markets are relatively stable I'm either very long in a declining interest rate environment and less long in a rising interest rate environment.

I have to call 'em as I see 'em...even if that means that my opinion has to change rapidly from one month to the next. I've never seen a market like this - and it requires to be much more of a trader than at any other time in my life.
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