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More Embedded Systems Stuff
Power utilities try to manage Year 2000 bug BY MIGUEL HELFT Mercury News
Staff Writer Mike Keller understands how daunting a task it is to ensure that
electric power will flow into millions of American homes after Dec. 31, 1999.
Pulling open a cabinet door at one of Silicon Valley Power's generating
plants, Keller pointed to a maze of wires connecting chips and computer-like
boards. Keller, who is acting assistant director at Santa Clara's municipal
utility, is trying to verify that all crucial equipment -- whether it is
software or so- called ''embedded'' chips that run vital facilities -- can
cope with what is commonly known as the Year 2000 computer problem.
Keller said a technician has to look at each of the boards, identify each chip
and figure out whether it performs a ''mission-critical'' function. If it is
critical, Keller has to ask the manufacturer of the chip whether it has date-
dependent functions, and if it does, whether it is Year 2000 compliant.
''Then we have to decide whether we trust (the response),'' Keller said.
''This is probably one of the most difficult investigations we have to go
through.''
Chips in relays, switches, sensors and other devices often use clocks for
synchronization with other equipment, schedule maintenance and calibration, or
simply to know when to turn on and off. Likewise, software programs use dates
for a variety of calculations. But many programs and chips are not ready for
the new millennium, as they were designed to represent years with two digits.
Many fear they could go haywire when the clocks advance from ''99'' to ''00.''
The meticulous process Keller described is needed to assess, and perhaps fix,
a single piece of equipment at one of the utility's 15 power substations.
Multiply that by the 7,800 or so utilities and power suppliers across the
country and you begin realizing why the task is so immense.
What's more, the power supply in North America is dependent on an intricate
chain of millions of links that have to be inventoried individually, assessed
and fixed. The distributed nature of the electric power industry also means
that overall success depends on the collaboration and pooling of efforts of
thousands of players.
In a sense, the electric power infrastructure is a microcosm of the
technology infrastructure as a whole: the ability of any given player to
function properly depends on its own systems being in working order and on
each of its suppliers and customers to be up to snuff. A problem with power
generation in Idaho could affect customers in California. Power flowing out
of a plant in Oregon may not reach its intended destination if a faulty
switch or relay trips up the transmission and distribution system. And the
efforts of a local utility to fix its own Year 2000 problem could prove
futile if its own power supplier, typically a larger utility, fails to do the
same.
Yet, although many utilities and power generators have been working on the
Year 2000 problem individually and in consultation with some of their
partners, there is no overall gauge of the industry's readiness.
''As far as an overall assessment of where the industry is, it hasn't been
done,'' said Gene Gorzelnik, communications director of the North American
Electric Reliability Council. The NERC was created in 1968 to ensure
reliability of the power supply throughout much of the United States, Canada
and parts of Mexico. In May, the Department of Energy asked NERC to conduct a
Year 200 assessment. The group has sent surveys to individual electric
industry members and is expected to report to the Energy Department in
mid-September.
The lack of a clear overall picture 17 months before the new millennium has
critics alarmed.
''It is very disconcerting that at this point in time, we are just now
starting to take a look at the whole industry,'' said Rick Cowles, director
of industry Year 2000 solutions for the consulting firm TAVA/R.W. Beck and
author of ''Electric Utilities and Y2K.'' ''We know that this is going to be
an issue, but we don't know how big.''
What's more, the electric utility industry is no longer trying to fix
everything -- there is simply not enough time and resources to do so. Instead,
the goal is to identify and upgrade enough of the systems necessary to run key
functions smoothly. Those that do not get fixed, it is hoped, will not be
essential to core operations. And contingency plans are being drawn up to work
around the systems that will not be mitigated -- and to cope with the
unexpected.
''There is no way that we can test the entire system and make sure that every
problem is fixed,'' said Dennis Eyre, executive director of the Western
Systems Coordinating Council, a regional division of the NERC that oversees
power reliability in 11 western states, including California. The WSCC is by
far the largest of nine reliability councils, connecting about 50 million
people. ''To make sure that we haven't overlooked something critical, we will
operate in a very conservative mode for a while.''
Throughout the electric power industry, officials remain cautiously optimistic
about the prognosis for their Year 2000 efforts. Yet many admit there could be
failures.
<<<<<snipola of Pollyanna Happy faced bullcrap by Power companies saying that
they are 'wroking hard' on it and that they do not 'intend' to have
blackouts>>>>
Although no one in the industry has a clear view of the scope of the
millennium bug, a few details can shed some light into its magnitude.
Consider, for instance, the cabinet that Silicon Valley Power's Keller
inspected. It is a complex sensing device that beams information back to a
master control system. That software system, known as Supervisory Control and
Data Acquisition, or SCADA, is made up of millions of lines of programming
code, Keller said. Silicon Valley Power's SCADA program was analyzed by
experts who found 100,000 instances of dates being used to perform various
calculations. Keller said Silicon Valley Power's SCADA system is going
through hardware and software upgrades that has been certified as Year 2000
compliant.
In terms of embedded chips, the problem may be more significant. In a typical
coal or gas-fired power plant, there may be several thousand embedded
devices, said Jim Fortune, operations manager for the Year 2000 embedded
systems program at the Electric Power Research Institute, a non-profit
industry group based in Palo Alto. A regional distribution system could have
another thousand or so chips, he said.
''In a power plant, you get these things buried inside equipment,'' Fortune
said. ''It is a daunting task to account for everything there is. And you have
to understand what role it plays.''
The EPRI is compiling a huge database cataloging the chips used throughout the
electric utility industry to serve as a clearinghouse for utilities. But at
EPRI, as at NERC, the task was begun only a few months ago.
Cowles said there are about 7,800 electric utilities and power producers in
the United States. Only about 200 of those are large investor-owned
utilities. Many of them, including PG&E, which is one of the largest such
utilities, have Year 2000 compliance efforts well under way. The remaining
7,600 or so are municipal utilities, rural power cooperatives and independent
power producers, who represent about a quarter of the nation's power
capacity, he said.
''They are the folks that are kind of key to the whole mess,'' Cowles said.
''They input into and draw power from the same distribution system as everyone
else. If they have problems . . . everyone is potentially affected.''
And even at utilities such as PG&E, where software efforts appear to be under
control, plans for completing work on embedded systems remain sketchy. Orlov
said all of PG&E's software systems -- including things like billing, energy
management and SCADA systems -- are on schedule to be fixed and tested by the
end of this year, leaving a full year to deal with unexpected problems. But
an inventory of embedded systems has been completed only recently and has not
yet been assessed. The utility expects to have a final schedule for fixing
embedded systems in September, he said.
Critics say leaving the upgrade of embedded chips until late could be a recipe
for failure. It could mean that utilities throughout the country, if not the
world, could start ordering replacements for the same embedded chip equipment
at the same time. Manufacturers could find it difficult to meet the surge in
demand, critics fear, and some utilities may not get the parts they need.
The industry's potential problems also could stem from sources outside its own
controls. Utilities that have upgraded their own systems are concerned about
others they rely on, ranging from the banks that handle billing systems, to
transportation systems that bring them fuel, to communications companies that
provide them with critical infrastructure.
''That's the more daunting challenge for us,'' said Fishback, of the
California Independent System Operator. The non-profit organization, which
began running the power gird on March 31 when the state's power generation
industry was deregulated, is equipped mostly with new software systems that
are Year 2000 compliant, Fishback said.
Industry officials said fixing the millennium computer bug is a top priority,
adding that they are not concerned by the lack of an overseer for the whole
industry. After all, they argued, the reliability of the power supply is
secured on a daily basis through the cooperation of countless players. That
same cooperation, they said, will foster solutions for the Year 2000 computer
problem across the industry.
''I think everyone is acutely aware of the worst-case scenario, and nobody
wants to have that happen,'' Fishback said. ''It is no different from what a
utility does in day-to-day operation.''
--
Paul Milne
"If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast"
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