Peter,
You must have not had your morning cup of coffee when you wrote your analysis
of Van Wagoner's performance. The choices for an investor who, at this time finds himself down -20% for the year, are:
1) Leave their money with Van Wagoner, $80 X 30% = $104.
2) Give him some more money, ($80 + $20) X 30% = $130.
3) Money market sounds a whole lot better, $80 X 4% = $83.20.
I would agree that it is SPECULATIVE to project a +30% return for the remainder
of the year, but I do think it is LIKELY that the Van Wagoner funds will better the +4% returns from a money market fund.
Besides, why are we considering such a short-term time horizon, as in 9 months?
Is it that you are that close to retirement? If so, I would suggest that you should look
at some bond funds because they are offering some very attractive yields. But if, as I suspect, you have at least a 10-year investment horizon, you would be benefit greatly from a showing more patience and concentrating less on year-to-date performance.
Best regards,
William |
