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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 213.30

-3.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: djane who wrote (53150)	8/29/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: djane	of 61433

Interesting jach post on CSCO (via CSCO thread) Talk : Communications : CSCO - Cisco Systems, Inc. \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| Earnings \| To: Ibexx (16416 ) From: jach Friday, Aug 28 1998 2:09AM ET Reply # of 16540 time to get out from csco; 30%+ margin will be extremely hard to maintain- reasons: 1. insider sales of significant amout recently 2. LU and NT with 10% margin will give strong competition 3. Glut of GBit switches/Layer 3 switch routers from all these startups are coming to mkt now; they all need to sell; see what happened to the low end ethernet switch mkt; one can buy a switch for 50$ at COmpUSA or FRYs; at this rate of competeition and chip technology standardization high-end boxes will come down to the 500$ to 1000$ level within a yr; pretty tough to have 30% net margin on a 500$ box 4. Efficiency of Web commerce now being duplicated by others 5. past history has nothing to do with future; being up for last 5 yrs do not necessarily mean that it will go up for the next 5 yrs 6. As many have deep profits already in, when csco starts the downturn many will bail out, and it will be much more severe than the mkt trend; imo, sudden drop of 5,10 to 20$ is possible Message 5577735

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