Gary (OG) very bullish on ASND/LU merger (via LU thread)
Talk : Communications : LU - Lucent Technologies
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To: William Hunt (3819 )
From: Gary
Thursday, Aug 27 1998 9:49PM ET
Reply # of 3839
Interesting perspective. You seem to feel the LU, through Bell Labs, can build what they need to compete in the new market in months what it's taken companies years to build and perfect....AND to win business from customers that are fully imbedded with and
installing ASND products. Pretty simplistic view. Add to that the expertise and learned
experiences from thost at ASND. ASND has found and fixed problems that LU isn't
even aware of yet. The engineering talent alone is worth half of the $15B. THe
customers are worth the other half.
Let me add one other tid-bit. It's my firm opinion, based on conversations with a
number of well placed folks that LU is held up in part on the expectation that they will
buy ASND. If they don't LU will weaken. Yes, this is contrary to the NT/BAY
annoucement. The street very much want this merger and sees it as a very positive
positioning move for LU. To not purchase ASND would be a "bad thing".
OG
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Talk : Communications : LU - Lucent Technologies
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To: William Hunt (3822 )
From: Gary
Thursday, Aug 27 1998 11:26PM ET
Reply # of 3839
Yes William, I read that article as well. It is obviously written by someone that hasn't a
clue about how complex these products are. LU has little experience in implementing
packet based networks and to assume that the folks they have are so good that they can
build products which companies like CSCO and ASND have taken years to architect is
more than just naive.
I agree however that I don't want LU to overpay. Still, this market moves to fast to wait
a year until a home grown product comes out. By the time they get it done ASND and
CSCO will have something better. In order to get a hold on the communications market
you have to buy your way into it....ala CISCO. NT/BAY is a poor example. TOo much
product overlap, suffering companies, etc. etc.. LU is strong and ASND is strong...in
their own unique markets. As a CSCO long I'd hate to have this competition...and as a
CSCO long I'd like nothing better since it'll be the only way LU and ASND can
effectively compete thereby giving CSCO added incentive to innovate even more.
OG
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Talk : Communications : LU - Lucent Technologies
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To: mrknowitall (3830 )
From: Gary
Friday, Aug 28 1998 3:34PM ET
Reply # of 3839
What announcement are you referring to? Note that both Cisco and ASND also have
SS7 capabilities. Granted however LU is the incumbent here.
Still having the ability to interface to legacy SS7 signaling devices - although clearly a
fundamental requriement - gets you nothing unless you first have a packet based
network to install...otherwise there is no churn...you have to have both! LU is currently
behind their understanding of and in building marketable packet based environements
and is even further behind (I believe) in building billing and other applications for IP
networks.
What I'm getting at is that the new networks are packet based and billing app's and
signaling (SS7) although required must be adapted to these new packet based
environments. ASND and CSCO have the basics in place (network infrastructure) and
are now building/buying (Stratus, Lightspeed) these applications on top of their
networks. LU has to come at it from the other angle which will likely lead them to realize
that existing SS7 and billing applications need adaptation for integration onto packet
based environments. I think it is this fundamental issue which has some believing that
ASND and CSCO will get there first. In this market (as fast as it's moving) getting there
first will be hugely important. The question is, is LU willing to take that risk or will they
eliminate some of this risk by purchasing someone with the foundational knowledge to
help them eliminate it.
OG |
