TRADERS live by tech. analysis.
<rant>
I have dabbled in trading, and found no utility at all in TA, even for short-term (intra-day) analysis.
Of course, my inability to make a tool work does not mean the tool is no good. But when I say that TA doesn't work for me, I mean both in long-term investment and in short-term trading.
I still fail to understand why anyone with a genuinely predictive tool (as TA'ers claim to have) would be on CNBC, or writing newsletters or websites, instead of making trillions of dollars every day and buying up the entire world.
BTW, ever heard of the Prediction Corporation? They were some Los Alamos based math/physics guys, and I think they actually had a quant model -- way more complicated than regular TA -- that worked predictively for a little while, giving them an ever-so-slight (truly slight) advantage over market returns, I think using some psychonomic postulates (overreaction, etc). Only worked for a little while. And maybe it only "worked" out of random luck. Who knows. But it's interesting stuff. If it takes those kinds of brains and that kind of computing power to produce just slight advantage over market returns, it's funny that people still think they can achieve grandiosely outsized returns with things like candlestick charts and the ever-elusive "head & shoulders."
</rant> |
