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Biotech / Medical : Immunex
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (530)5/21/2001 8:02:05 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 656
 
IMNX is in the same catagory as NTAP or AMZN or JNPR: kinky gogo concept stocks. With a stock whose earnings are so far into the future, and so uncertain, you are gambling, not investing

You may not have noticed, but IMNX earned over $150m last year, on sales of around $1 billion. Further, I have considerable confidence that the 2002/2003 earnings will be substantially higher.

How do I know that? They have a product that patients are tearing down the door to get and that is currently supply limited. By late 2002 the supply problem will in all likelihood be solved. I also do not believe that any rival product will be approved in that time period (further out is a different matter) that will challenge Enbrel. That means barring some disaster (always possible in a drug company) solid earnings growth is locked in at least for the next three years. I don't believe any of the go-go stocks you referenced can make the same claim.

I'm not saying the stock is a screaming bargain at these prices (although I'm holding for the present, hoping they will do some deal to increase the Enbrel supply in the nearer term). I will say it was a screaming bargain at under $11 where I bought.

And no, I'm not "in love" with IMNX - in fact I suggested it was overpriced when it was around $38:

Message 15167486

Peter
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