The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (5330)	4/17/2020 1:13:39 AM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) of 13801

To my mind the structure of that graph is bad news. It reminds me of response time (delay time) curves in OR problems .... measures in certain random processes. This (contagion) is also a random process and is not well-understood, by definition. In a typical response time graph, the blue line starts to go vertical as system load goes higher. When you normalize things, the highest (load) value on the x-axis is 1, while the highest value on the y-axis is, of course, infinity. All the mitigation procedures can prevent the blue from making a larger theta (angle) with the horizontal. The angle to the right now looks like a 45-degree angle. If it starts going to 46, 48 .... then it can escalate. I don't like the graph because it reminds me of similar graphs that go vertical. So we have to cut the loading ..... and I am afraid that the Orange Thing wants the opposite for reasons you can work out. One of the world's top probabilists once said to me --- while we were talking about people --- that on average, people collectively get what they deserve. He is not alive any more. But given who "we" put in charge, I can see what he meant.

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