You popped into the thread and made a pointed comment to Ken's post.
You speak in terms of share price rather than of market cap. Would your opinion be the same given 1 million shares out? 100 million?
What are your revenue projections for Q4, FY '97?
What do you think of the work with the MMP inhibitor (3340)? Why do you think that your number two competitor in the PI field, Roche, chose to market Viracept in Europe (and pay big money for the right to do such)? In general, what do you think of the pipeline (cancer, inflammation and anti-virals)? If Viracept *is* the better product (have you looked at product labeling approved by FDA, crix versus Viracept?), what percentage of the total PI market would you see AGPH capturing? Do you think that the market will stall at levels near the current sales (approximately $600 million), or do you feel that it will approach the >$2 billion which some have predicted? What do you think the effects of combined PI therapy on penetration will be? Have you followed the early results from the saquinavir/nelfinavir trials? When do you think JT will file in Japan? What do you think the effects on share price will be if and when approval is received in Europe (I expect it relatively soon)?
Your criticism seems to hinge on the pitfalls of a little guy (your personnel figures are *way* out of date, perhaps you need to find new "analysts") taking on the big guys. It would seem that this is also the route to break through to huge profits...... the game is finding the products that carry muster, and one of your two big guys has put its stamp of approval on Viracept.
Ponder this......... the company could very readily float a follow-on at this time, and they'd have more than your $20-25/share in the bank. I think that it is a safe assumption that you are pulling your numbers, as you indicated, "out of the blue". Part of the biotech game is to maintain a significant chunk of product rights while minimizing dilution. Nobody has played the game better than Johnson et al. Perhaps you would consider reading the content of this thread before judging the company?
The current AGPH sales and marketing group, alone, numbers close to the figure that you gave as total personnel. While you're correct and there is substantial risk, AGPH also presents a unique investment opportunity for exactly the reasons you've listed...... David versus Goliath. Assuming/generalizing that a company will come down in price, because most do after a run-up, must get boring. Wouldn't it be more satisfying to ferret out those that won't?
Again, welcome to the thread. A contrarian view is always needed, although the AGPH bulls here seem to look at both sides of the coin.
Rick |
