SPX, SOX, VIX 2Month charts:
For the last month, SPX has been in an upwardly-sloping channel. There is a lot of resistance, in the 1220-1250 area. I began going long, on 8/8, and added to long positions yesterday. I will be selling aggressively in that 1220-1250 area. 1284 is the 200dma, which I consider the max upside. For the last couple of months, I've been guessing a 50% chance of a double-dip recession. With recent evidence, I think the odds are now 70%.
SOX has been in a horizontal channel, weaker than SPX. So, when I start selling, my semi and semi-equip positions will go first. I had been scaling into my KLIC short positions. This time, I may initiate a large short position at SOX 360.
VIX continues the pattern, since 8/8, of lower highs. If SPX gets up to 1284, VIX could get down to its 200dma at 20. That wouldn't change my positioning; I'd just use the opportunity to short more.
 |
