Frank re: Saville & the Gold Newsletters....
The only point I am making concerning Saville - is that I respect his integrity and his "guts" to call it like he really see's it and to his credit, he is not just another Permabull Goldbug Cheerleader, for whom it's only a question of how high the decibel level is each month for yet another version of - Gold is going to the Moon ~
The vast majority of the Gold Newsletter Writers never make any short-term timing calls and literally avoid it like the plague. Rarely, if ever, do you see them address specific price points for the indices as far as Buy/Sell - Entry/Exit Calls... so again, I give him credit for that.
Also, Saville is a good thinker - one of the few that is not just another mindless Permabull Goldbug, simply regurgitating an after the fact-end of the month "re-cap" of what has already happened. He is not afraid to dig a little deeper than most in his research, or to do a little outside of the box thinking as well.
As a Trader there is always value in hearing well thought out contrarian positions that may be in complete and total opposition to how I see the market.
Actually, I am continually looking for - just that.
One of the most successful Hedge Funds is Steve Cohen's SAC Capital...their traders usually work in 2-person teams and specialize in individual sectors. Having someone to use as a sounding board...someone that keeps you from getting lazy, or complacent as a trader is important.
Individual Traders aren't sitting in a Large Trading Room at a Hedge Fund, probably don't have another person sitting across the table, or desk from them - that they can use as a sounding board etc...and that's where the value of these Investor Boards on Silicon Investor and reading a variety of the Research Newsletters comes in...
To be fair to many of the Newsletters; especially those that only come out in monthly issues... I don't think they are really oriented toward active traders, or trading.
The majority are very macro in their content and usually just reiterate an after-the-fact bullish-slanted review of what just happened in the Gold Sector...and thus are virtually worthless for having any ability to help anyone make - money.
They Exist to Sell Suscriptions and the best way to Sell Subscriptions - is to leverage the human need to be told - only what we want to hear....the good news, just the good news and nothing but - the good news.
Given the volatility that often exits in the Gold Sector... that isn't going to be of much value for "trading" and it's certainly not going to make anyone - any money.
- just ask they Goldbug hoardes that rode the HUI 100 Point Death March - all the way down.... only to puke at "THE" botom.
When you compare the average research, or commentary that comes out of the Gold Sector to the more established Sectors within the Market... you'll easily understand why the rest of the Investing & Trading World views the average Goldbug - as a double-digit IQ, conspiracy theory nutball...that's busy hoarding Kuggerands, Gas Masks, boxes of Ammo for his AK-47 and Canned Food in his Basement Bomb Shelter...(not that those might not come in handy some day (vbg)~
Saville certainly hasn't made good timing calls of late...but, to his defense, neither have the majority of the old-time established Newsletter Writers.
Most stayed bullish way past the top and then fully participated in the near 100-point HUI Death March from the November/December '04 Highs to the April/May '05 lows... then, finally got Bearish at the bottom and called for lower lows that didn't come.... now here again, at the top of the run up (which only took 20 trading days...blink and you missed it)...they loaded up their flock and broke out the Pom-Pom's yet again right at an interim top - only to rollover 20 points here again!?!?!
- Saville, while leaving a 50ish Index Point "Trade" on the Table here - did at least keep his readers out of much of the carnage.
There were some good timing calls as well.
Frank Barbera had a timely bottom call (linked below) and there were a few of the PermaBulls that while they did not avoid the carnage - did accurately & presciently pound the table for the extreme divergence between the HUI:GOLD ratio and perhaps that kept some of those who rode the entire ride down... from capitulating at the bottom - as many did.
Here's a link to Frank Barbera's nice bottom Call. Barbera is a Technician.. also an excellent Macro thinker and I always like hearing his views.
financialsense.com
And as far as "market timing calls" - here is an interesting comment he made vis a vis - the Newsletter Writers making "timing calls" -
[" While it would be unprofessional for any investment advisor to attempt to "pick THE low” in a market, the selloff seen last week certainly “felt” like a major bottom to me."]
...it was.
I don't know where Barbera was going into the bottom and that - as Paul Harvey likes to say.... "is the rest of the story"
- as it really doesn't matter much if one makes a perfect "bottom" call... if you didn't avoid riding it all the way down to get there...and that also a problem found in most of the Gold Newsletters - as most Pundits simply will NOT make Sell & Exit Calls - and for one simple reason !
- it doesn't SELL Newsletters !
...once again; the strong Human need to hear only what we want to hear...whether it be in our best interest, or not.
Goldnewsletter Writers only sell subscriptions to longter Gold Permabulls...and they DO NOT want to hear negatives about Gold, the stocks and they do NOT want to hear SELL-EXIT Calls.... so Kudo's to Saville in my book - for having a level of Integrity that he is willing to cost himself subscriptions from the masses - to honestly call it like he see's it.
...that's my point on Saville.
As a side note:
It now seems that those Goldbugs who most loved "CASH" at the BOTTOM and who have been pounding the table in despising it here at the TOP - as they've loaded up here - waiting for the "BIG ONE" breakout...just failed to anticipate yet another "SMACKDOWN".
- I'm kind of thinking that their opinion of "CASH" may have just changed here (vbg)?
Chainik; as far as that post on the role that Sentiment played as a contrarian Indicator in this recent move in the Goldstocks.
I made some posts at "the bottom" of the recent washout in the Sector - with headlines of "Hello out there - am I all alone ?" & "Is this -Survivor Island, or what ?" ...as well as links to some accurate commentary from Hulberts Digest concerning the absolute near perfect contrarian indicator that Sentiment was to this recent bottom...and that's one of the reasons I left the thread I used to post on...because people only want to hear what they want to hear... and they don't like it when they become the primary contrarian indicators of always being too bearish at the Bottoms and too bullish at the Tops and virtually always missing both...
I'm not sure how productive it would be to review that reality amongst the SI Goldbugs.
The Marketwatch Articles concerning the Hulbert Digest's Sentiment Indicator amongst the Gold Newsletter Writers virtually mirrored what we saw here on SI.
- Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by any other name is still the same...and it remains one of the great "trades" the Market ever offers.
later`
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