There is absolutely nothing wrong with our Intel.
That’s quite a statement, coming on the heels of the revelation that our favorite source of information on Iraq in the pre-war period was working for the Iranians the whole time.
We spend an enormous amount of money collecting as much information as we can handle.
Money doesn’t guarantee quality, especially in that world. We can spend tens of millions of dollars and get less for it than the Iranians got from having the right agent in the right place.
How we interpret the data we collect is something entirely different. That is a problem for psychiatrists.
We favor sources that tell us what we want to hear, and exaggerate the information that is consistent with our prejudices and our preferred courses of action. Inconvenient information is dismissed. Doesn’t take a shrink to figure that one out.
Over the long term, 95% of the world's population will not allow 5% of the world's population to dictate to them how things are done.
Especially when that same 5% dismisses anyone that doesn’t have major military forces as insignificant.
We can shoot and ask questions later and get the job done over the short term. But that is not going to do the job for the longer term.
I agree. The problem in Iran at this point in time, though, which is what we were discussing, is a bit simpler. If we are 100% sure that we know where all of the nuclear materials and facilities are, a military option exists. If we are not sure, the military option does not exist. Whether or not that option, assuming that it exists, should be taken, or whether it should be taken unilaterally or otherwise, are different questions.
Larger issues aside, at this point it will probably have to happen unilaterally or not all. Not too many people will want to cooperate with us at this point. Crying wolf has its drawbacks, especially if you swagger about like a self-parodying jackass while doing it. The way we present our opinions and the manner in which we frame our plans is as important as the content of those opinions and those plans. Swagger plays well to the domestic market, but in the long run we lose more than we gain. |
