We need assurance that things are on track for 6.8B and 49c
Much as we all would like some statement to this effect, I think it is an ill-advised move. I own HWP, where Carly seems to jump to the slightest sniffle that afflicts Wall Street. First, her repeated assurances have a minimal effect to begin with. Next, the unfortunate thing is that, even if the assurance is truthful today, something can happen tomorrow to change it, thus completely destroying one's credibility - all for a couple of days' worth of stock price relief. This exactly happened to Carly - she emphatically declared that "we will make our quarter - no doubt about it" in October, only to have the carpet pulled out from under her a couple of weeks later. Not surprizingly, she was out there today as well, reassuring everyone. Of course, no one believes her anymore, anyway. One has to wonder why Dell, Capellas, etc. don't jump to the podium at every stock move.
If anyone needs assurance, we should simply point them at the company financials, and let that do the talking. In the case of MSFT, there's $56B of short and long term investments, and a market cap of $306B - or about $10 of liquid cash for every $57 share. Discounting that, you end up with a PE of about 30 on a trailing basis.
Of course, you can use my other indicator - all securities purchased my me can be expected to lose 50% of their value in short order. I went long MSFT today at 58, so I advice all of you to short.
Milan |
