How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 478.47

-1.0%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Valley Girl who wrote (53733)	12/3/2000 10:49:01 AM
From: PMS Witch	of 74651

Buying Microsoft shares ... I have no means of substantiating my opinion because it's based on observation and not any quantitative data I could provide, but I have no memory of Microsoft beginning any sustained price appreciation without a protracted period of trading in a very narrow price range first. (Except once!) Lately, we've seen this stock ride a roller-coaster, and I don't view this price action favourably. Confidence in this company's future has been shattered. This pessimism must be overcome before the current share price decline ends. A court win would help tremendously. An unbroken series of positive earnings surprises is what's needed, accompanied with events unfolding is such a manner that investors perceive the earnings acceleration is more of a continuous pattern than one-time good fortune. (Or worse, the product of an accounting magician's blue smoke and mirrors.) Improvement in the health of the whole PC industry would also cause investors to view Microsoft favourably. As for Monday buying: Considering recent prices, MSFT is priced at levels lower than we've seen in quite some time. The brave may be well rewarded with a superb entry price. However, the timid may feel the lost opportunity resulting from waiting for a clearer view of the future is a small price to pay for avoiding the risk accompanying acquiring these shares when prices are low and uncertainty is high. Over the years, you've shown more ability to invest with wisdom and foresight than most participants on this thread; hence, I'd be more comfortable being your follower than advisor. Cheers, PW.

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