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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 117.34

+3.7%

Jan 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Little Joe who wrote (5371)	1/7/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	of 116842

Little Joe, << I think a lot of smart people are talking about deflation, but I can't see how it happens if the money supply is moving up, apparantly very rapidly.>> What happens if the Yen gets too cheap? Asia will start to dump their stuff into North America. Because North American goods are more expensive, people stop buying them. Soon that will mean less jobs in N/A .... more unemployment, less dollars to spends .... prices start to fall in N/A to compete with Asian goods ; profits start to fall ..... and so on, until a point of equilibrium is reached. Initially as the economy deflates, if you have cash, things look great. But sooner or later when the defaltionary process works its way through the economy, things are so hot any more. Thay is why IMHO the Japanese do not want the yen to get too cheap - it makes _them much cheaper to buy. I am certaily no economist, but that is how I see it at the present time. MB

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