That's useful info. Bookings peaked in 4Q10, and have declined since. It's a safe assumption, they will continue to decline, into 2012.
I don't know how to extrapolate, from equip bookings to cell production capacity. I'd have to know, or guess:
1. How much of the equipment is new capacity, vs. upgrades? All the big cell-makers are trying to increase the solar conversion efficiency of their products, and that requires some new equipment.
2. How long, from booking to delivery to installation to full production? 18 months?
3. Are there significant cancellations of previous bookings? How much?
4. Each dollar of bookings creates, on average, how much new capacity?
5. Are those bookings just for cell equipment, or does it include equipment for making modules, wafers, poly, and testing? From what I've read, the poly buildout is continuing, but cell capacity isn't. Modules don't take much capex, and capacity can be added quickly. |
