Let the Kurds opt out and let the Shiaa figure out whether its worth the fight for the triangle. Trade american support for oil with the Kurds. IRan will protect the shiaa if the Triangelese start moving south.
Then we get a Balkan situation, with lasting conflict and instability. The one thing the Shiites and Sunnis agree on is that the Kurds should not be allowed to break away. They will fight to stop it, and they will have help from the Turks.
The major beneficiaries of chaos will, of course, be AQ and the Iranian mullahs (two different groups with different interests, though they will cooperate if they find it mutually beneficial to do so). We may deny responsibility and we may reject responsibility, but denial doesn’t mean we have no responsibility.
i expect they will not make the vietnam error in the second term if allawi fails to get enough active support among iraqis.
Allawi is not, of course, the only contender for power out there, and we’d be unwise to put all our eggs in his basket. At this point, we have no idea how the framework of political contention is going to develop.
If a lousy or inutile government emerges, we have a problem: we will have to decide whether to sustain it and try to fix it, which we may not be able to do, or whether to let it fall, which would amount to an admission of defeat.
The "Vietnam error" was not in intervention. The error lay in allowing ourselves to be boxed into a choice between ceding defeat and intervening in support of a government that couldn't govern. Once you are in that position, any choice you make will be wrong. |
