Tech,
Where did you get in at with your short? Are you already ahead? Because unless the Intel news drags everything down tomorrow Apple will go up before earnings. You could start out behind and then a good report (which I believe comes after hours, as usual) could really add to the hurt. Have you looked at the history of this co.'s stock the past year? A year ago when they announced a surprise profit the stock went from $16 at close to $20 at the open the next day. This is the kind of "downside" you risk, yet I don't think there is much "upside." When the immediate future looks good this stock hasn't tanked on bad earnings. Look at the Jan.-March quarter. It was an absolute bomb. But the stock didn't drop because the immediate future looked like a Larry Ellison takeover. He kept AAPL from tanking to $13. (It took Jobs selling plus panic over the bad sales in April and May to actually get us down to $13.) In this case we have everything looking up in the near future. So I think the stock could shrug off a $50 million loss, no problem. We're talking operating profits and losses here by the way. I have no idea if Apple is planning on any one-time charges or not.
<<Also, Marc, though an extra $50 million won't hurt Apple that much, it will be $50 million in unexpected losses that discourages investors from investing further, causing selling, causing panic. Not a great scene, but one I would profit from.>>
But they are predicted to already lose $20 million, no? So another $30 million when you are talking $1.6-$2.0 billion is a rounding error. I think getting rid of Amelio gives Apple at least one quarter of breathing room from Wall Street. Plus, why would Steve Jobs hint that he's taking the CEO job permanently if the internal sales numbers didn't look good?
<<Best of luck, though, to all. If there was a way for us all to make money, I'd love to participate.>>
In this bull market of all bull markets, it's called going long. Everybody seems to be winning except the shorts, as I've learned with Yahoo the past few months. The profits to be made shorting don't seem to compare well with the upside from going long on stocks with good prospects.
Marc (Hope you cover tomorrow, at a slight profit, before earnings come out. By the way, IMHO now is the time to short Yahoo. The valuation is ridiculous and the momentum has been broken. Even the longs on the YHOO threads have taken profits and gotten out.) |
