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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Joe Antol who wrote (5416)12/1/1996 1:50:00 AM
From: Edward E. Shure   of 42771
 
I wish I knew Joe; my best guess is that the institutional window dressing is mostly over and that there is support in the 101/2-13 range. The problem is that the weak holders get ready to bail and then the takeover rumors and/or some other bit of speculation hits CNBC and the weak hands decide to hold on another week. At this time it's very hard to determine if the trend is toward accumulation or distribution.At this time I see two positives; the bottom fishers have by now cycled into other less lethargic pickings and the momentum players are riding AMAT, IBM, AOL and ASND. Worst case scenario is a repeat of the past few months where it has moved sideways to down with numerous false upticks. Best case scenario is that it slowly base builds through the 13-14 range where the street notices it again and it becomes a focus of the week selection, the momentum players jump on and push it through the old 52 week high, and then in the 20s the analysts "discover" this great turnaround situation. Remember UIS-the street had all but given it up for dead when it was in the 3 range, ignored it until it broke 10 whereupon it became a great buy again. Kind of like the situation in reverse when the analysts downgrade a stock such as MEDA after it has gapped down to less than half the previous days close. My own opinion is that NOVL still has enough of the market and an extremely talented, dedicated and loyal pool of employees and that they will find the right visionary to lead them. At this juncture they are like a rudderless ship; all that talent run amok.
I'm holding my NOVL for the long term-but I hope it's not long term.
Edward
P.S. I have great faith; all I have to remember are the likes of Citicorp at 12 and B of A at 3.
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