Some recent Zogby poll results. Published in the WSJ online version. Kerry dooing well in the contested states. Edwards' selection helps.
Battlegrounds States Poll - July 12, 2004
Overview
Interactive version: online.wsj.com
John Kerry improved his standings in the latest Zogby Interactive poll of likely voters in 16 battleground states, apparently helped by his selection of his onetime rival, John Edwards of North Carolina, as running mate. Of the 16 states, Mr. Kerry now leads in 12, up from the nine states he held three weeks ago. Mr. Bush holds three states, down from seven, and the candidates are tied in one state, Tennessee. The poll, conducted July 6-10, started the same day Mr. Kerry announced his choice for his No. 2.
The candidates' leads in 10 of the 16 states are within the polls' margins of error, which vary between +/- 2.7 and +/- 4.9 percentage points. All three of Mr. Bush's leads are well within the margin of error, while Mr. Kerry's lead is in the clear in half of the states he holds, including the key battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and Florida -- though that state was in Mr. Bush's column in the previous poll.
The latest poll returns Mr. Kerry to the nationwide edge he lost in this poll three weeks ago. Presuming that all the states go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Kerry would get 322 electoral votes and Mr. Bush would get 205. This tally excludes Tennessee's 11 electoral votes.
Mr. Kerry's biggest boost in recent weeks came from his July 6 announcement of Sen. Edwards as his running mate. The first-term senator, has been criticized by Republicans for his lack of experience, but others say his easy charisma could fill a gap in the Kerry campaign. A weak jobs report just before the holiday weekend might also have stolen some of the president's thunder. (The poll was conducted before the release of the Senate intelligence report on Friday.)
Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who isn't yet on any ballots nationwide put up a good showing in Nevada, where 5.9% of likely voters said they would back him. It was his highest showing to date in this poll. And Mr. Nader is starting to show what could happen if he does make it on a state ballot: His 4.4% of likely voters in Arkansas gave Mr. Bush the lead in the state; when the independent candidate was excluded, more likely voters supported Mr. Kerry. In most other states, Mr. Nader was supported by less than 2% of those polled.
The polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a division of Zogby International, which is conducting online polls twice a month through Election Day in states selected with The Wall Street Journal Online. Demographic information submitted by participants in the polls is spot-checked to help prevent fraud, and the results are weighted to make them representative of each state's overall voting population.
The margin of error varies from state to state depending on the number of participants in each state. Number of survey respondents: Arkansas, 508; Florida, 1,156; Iowa, 479; Michigan, 863; Minnesota, 573; Missouri, 849; Nevada, 513; New Hampshire, 527; New Mexico, 516; Ohio, 1,321; Oregon, 575; Pennsylvania, 742; Tennessee, 708; Washington, 1,073; West Virginia, 518; Wisconsin, 551. |
