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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Eric Hall who wrote (5431)12/1/1996 8:24:00 PM
From: Salah Mohamed   of 42771
 
Hi Eric..Nice Post

I couldn't have said it any better.

>>These short-timers are making me dizzy!<< Me too

Also, it seems that several long-term holders are getting impatient. I don't understand it. After several lousy quarters, the company comes up with very decent financial results indicating a strong turnaround and amazingly very few people are happy. I agree with Joe though that the only missing piece from this turnaround story is a new CEO with a "Grand Vision" of the company future.

>>The last thing I want is a buyout<< Agree

A buyout is not in the cards. My best guess is a low offer was presented to the company sometime during last month and was rejected. The events of last month supports this view.
- November 8: Stock jumps 26% on 13M shares on a buyout rumor and Novell does not deny the rumor.
- November 11: Novell states that Q4 results will be announced on 11/26 instead of 12/13.
- November 21: Novell files a poison pill.
- November 26: Novell denies the rumor "We are not for sale"

>>I invested to get a +100% return on my money from a no-brainer turnaround opportunity.<<

Although one quarter doesn't make a turnaround, should they maintain the growth of Q4 going forward, I expect them to show 20% annual revenue growth and 40% annual EPS growth. Personally, I am convinced that this going to happen, more or less. This reminds me of what happened to CA and ORCL in the early 90. Today, the stock price of these companies is 10-15 times the low of few years back.

Regards

Salah
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