The Democratic candidates and a strategic vision
Herbert London (archive)
February 15, 2004 | Print | Send
As I listened to the Democratic candidates discuss their foreign policy positions, which invariably translate into an attack on President Bush’s war in Iraq, I’m struck by the lack of a strategic vision or any analysis which offers credit to the policy makers in this administration.
It should be clear – but obviously isn’t – that there were geopolitical goals associated with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq which too often are overlooked.
Defeating Al Qaeda meant from the outset challenging this dispersed organization in the area from which it derives support. The U.S. did not have the means to induce behavioral change in every Middle Eastern state, but Iraq bordering Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran was and remains the single most strategic country in the region, and, as a consequence, the place from which pressure can be exerted.
Even if one concedes the maladroit way the war was presented to the American people, the strategic value in the occupation of Iraq should not be underestimated. Even if the U.S. government did not anticipate the intense guerilla resistance, it is foolhardy to ignore the nascent shift in regional behavior due, I should hastily note, to the presence of U.S. military forces in Iraq.
Consider the following developments. Despite attacks against American troops in Iraq, the guerrilla movement is contracting. In fact, the major issue is the transfer of political power, not military inadequacy.
The Saudis have been put on notice that support for Al Qaeda will be regarded as war-like actions against the U.S. It is not coincidental that the royal family has curtailed most financial and institutional support for radical Islamists around the world. The gushing spigot of assistance is being reduced to droplets.
The Iranians are discussing – primarily in private – collaborative efforts with the U.S. in an effort to bolster its increasingly fragile regime.
The Libyan government has renounced its weapons of mass destruction program and the Syrians have actively sought negotiations with Israel over the Golan Heights, a matter that fell into desuetude for years.
Most significantly, the predictions of an inflamed Islamic world has not come to pass. Rather than the passive and acquiescent view of the Clinton administration, Islamic societies view a determined and vigorous Bush team intent on seeing the war through to victory.
Without much fanfare, the United States is securing, through diplomacy and military presence, the Middle East from the Nile to the Hindu Kush.
Has nirvana arrived? Not by a long shot. Conditions are still volatile and unpredictable with a fall of the Musharaf government in Pakistan and the royal family in Saudi Arabia the wild cards.
Second, while Al Qaeda has been hurt, it hasn’t been dismembered. It is still capable of a lot of mischief, including a terror attack on the U.S. mainland.
Perhaps the most notable concern is a loss of will by an administration unwilling to pay the price in blood and treasure to defend our interests. If Howard Dean, or another of the Democratic candidates who opposes the war in Iraq, emerges as the party’s nominee and, unlikely as it seems, becomes president, the determination to fight and prevail could be undermined. This is the hope of the extremists and the fear of the centrists.
In his State Of The Union address the president argued that this is a moment when willpower is tested. He is right. All issues are subservient to this matter of determination.
As I see it, we must secure the peace for our children by fighting a war today. Already the deployment of forces in war is bearing results. The dominoes are falling in our direction. Peace is certainly not at hand, but Americans are far more secure today than they were before 9/11. It would be refreshing if a Democratic candidate could acknowledge that fact.
Of course, I’m not holding my breath.
Herbert London is president of the Hudson Institute and John M. Olin professor of humanities of the New York University, publisher of American Outlook and author of "Decade of Denial," recently published by Lexington Books. He's reachable through www.benadorassociates.com.
©2003 Herbert London |
