Wayne, the fact that you are NOT pitching stocks in this market tells me you are a value investor, possibly more disciplined than the rest of us. When you do find something to buy, I hope you will let us know, because it will probably be something we should all look at. Unlike Paul, I do think market timing is a reasonable pursuit when you are dealing with extremes. Timing when the market should trade at 14 or 16 times earnings is probably a fools game. But when the market is trading at 27 times earnings, being very very conservative is not market timing, its just common sense. And if the market went to 7 times earnings tomorrow, selling the cat to buy stocks is rational in my book. I don't think Paul disagrees completely - he just looks at individual stocks individually - if he can't find anything to buy, I'm sure he'd be in cash. And there is stuff to buy at cheap prices now. But are we kidding ourselves thinking that we won't be able to buy LaSalle for 6 and Cyprus Amax for 8 if this market falls apart?
I think my last post was probably directed at a couple of others who were posting yesterday, not at you Wayne.
I am fully invested again - though only because I pulled out 70% of my portfolio to buy a house. But I am uncomfortable. I am still sleeping well. When I can't sleep well, I'll do what I did last July - as Graham said, sell until I can sleep well. I'm not there yet because the stocks I have left I consider low risk and so beaten up that Mr. Market shouldn't bother them too much when he does his thing to Dell and GE.
Jim |
