Chirac Calls EU Referendum
EURSOC Two
15 July, 2004
France's president Jacques Chirac has defied expectations and called a vote on the EU constitution.
Chirac announced the referendum during yesterday's Bastille Day press conference. He had come under increasing pressure from many within his own party - including finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy - to put the constitution to the vote. The president held off a decision for months, reportedly because he believed that he might not win a referendum. He was furious when Tony Blair announced that Britain would vote on the treaty.
France's vote will come before Britain's - Chirac says that the poll will take place in the second half of next year: Britain's is unlikely to occur before 2006.
Some commentators see the French vote as a "win-win" situation for Blair. If France rejects the treaty, Blair will be spared the humiliation of defeat when Britain votes. A No vote from France would surely see the constitution consigned to the dustbin.
A Yes vote from France, however, would embolden Blair and give his campaign a much-needed boost - though it may be argued that British voters could take some convincing to vote for a treaty the French support.
As things stand, France looks likely to vote yes. Sixty percent of the population is said to favour the terms of the treaty. This could change, however: Chirac is said to dread the vote becoming a referendum on his presidency - voters have given his party two severe kickings in votes this year.
Furthermore, the EU Commission could make life difficult for Chirac in coming months with interventions which are sure to be unpopular with the French public.
France breaks more EU regulations than any other nation and the EU could move to bring it into line. Any such moves are likely to cost French jobs or budget cuts. Nevertheless, Paris is already trying to deal with this prospect by installing one of its own as EU competition commissioner, a move which has been likened to putting the fox in charge of the hen house.
France is also unhappy with EU expansion and talks aimed at bringing Turkey into the union.
While Blair looks set to benefit from the President's U-turn, the greatest beneficiary of the vote could be Chirac himself. Like Blair earlier this year, his decision has defused one of the major opposition claims that his EU policy is not democratically valid. Also like Blair, he has given himself a cause to see out his remaining years as premier.
The Independent observes that a referendum could seriously damage the resurgent French socialist party. The PS is deeply divided over the constitution, with its influential left wing - feeling its heels nibbled by the chasing pack of extremist-left parties - claiming that it will dismantle France's social policy and welfare state. Party centrists tend to support the constitution, though back in April their EU election manifesto declared war on liberal values. Many believe that the EU is a conspiracy to impose a liberal market economy on France.
If Chirac wins the vote, the benefits are clear. But if he loses? The president, ostensibly on the right, is not above arguing that the EU's liberalism could go too far, particularly under the influence of British and central European free-marketeers. When the last constitutional negotiations broke down in December 2003, Chirac took the opportunity to rally a number of nations willing to form a "hard-core" of French-led states dedicated to closer integration.
If France's voters reject the constitution, might Chirac claim that France has rejected one vision of the EU (Anglo-orientated, free-market, English-speaking, loosely integrated) and declare that a new EU should be born, with France at its rightful place at its heart?
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