Exactly how Iraq fades away.
Thomas Barnett Blog
"10 In Baghdad Die As Suicide Blast Shatters a Calm: Assassination In North; Iraq Chief Calls Bombing Insurgents' Response to New Crackdown," by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 15 July, p. A1.
How Iraq becomes another Afghanistan in the popular imagination of the American public is captured in this article: "naked aggression against Iraqi innocents" with American troops increasingly on the sidelines, behind base security fences. Our troops will continue to kill Iraqi insurgents, but we'll be operating more and more from defensive positions over time. For example:
In western Iraq on Wednesday, American marines killed more than 20 guerrillas near Ramadi, Lt. Col T.V. Johnson, a Marine spokesman, said the guerrillas struck at the marines with rocket-propelled grenades and homemade explosives. The marines suffered no casualties. Colonel Johnson called the engagement "a failed complex attack."
Yes, we will continue to lose people regularly (3 deaths were confirmed yesterday, two in a traffic accident), and yes, the terrorist will drive out the weaker coalition members like a Philippines, but it will mostly be Iraqis killing Iraqis and the U.S. keeping it from getting out of hand while the Allawi government slowly reestablishes control over the countryside. Not pretty, but increasingly not the election driver that the Democrats and Michael Moore were hoping for.
This is why Kerry and Edwards as the "sunshine boys" is important: I maintain that the most optimistic (as perceived by the voters) candidate always wins. Of course, Bush is going to play that game with great gusto as well, so it will be interesting to watch this careful dance unfold between the two camps over the coming weeks. |
