let, I thought we'd get a test of the 50 day at least. That has risen to about 40 now. Best case (from a short perspective) would have been for the market to correct (due to interest rates), dragging brokers down and completing EGRP's head & shoulders. Unless we get a reversal after the early rally today, it doesn't look like that's going to happen. The employment numbers couldn't have been more bullish, particularly the .1% wage gains.
My EGRP "short" is March 45 puts, so I could end up under water today if EGRP participates in the rally. I'm showing a pre-market bid of 47 1/4, so it looks like a small gain to open. Maybe I'll get a chance to get out.
Anyway, I still think the market is vulnerable. The focus the last few days has been on the employment report, so we get a relief rally now. Perhaps the next fear will be the slowdown in Europe, perhaps trade wars, perhaps even Y2k (did you notice all the media hype recently - even ABC News). Interest rates have risen considerably since last fall, yet market PEs are still at extreme highs. If rate hike fears subside as they seem to have started doing today, then perhaps money will flow into bonds instead of stocks (AMG Data reported a $1.8 billion outflow from stock funds this week, plus over $5 billion came out of money market funds for the second week in a row).
In short, I don't have a clue what to do. Maybe doing nothing is best.
Regards,
Bob |
