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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout

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To: jim_p who wrote (518)	8/31/2005 9:37:04 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 50621

"Katrina has caused a Cataclysmic Energy Infrastructure Event". quote/unquote: Louisiania Mid Continent Oil & Gas Association. Obviously... it's going to take time to see what the damage, is, or is not. It is a short-term event...but, if short-term events drive stocks up 10% and futures go parabolic...no reason to stand in front of that Train imo. I think Shorts need to be banking what they've made, step aside... let spec's get parabolic if they wish to...or wait for retracment to resume its downward momentum and re-enter on that momentum. No plaques for Shorts in Martyrdom. There are many OTHER plays with better risk:reward on both the long & the short side off of this "event". Matt Simmons just bought some "time" - nothing more, nothing less... he backed his supply:demand shock thesis into a Q4 corner - and we saw the market sell off stocks heavilly into new record highs for BOTH Crude Oil and Natural Gas...and we saw the US relase the SPR... THAT is something that should not be lost - on either Shorts, or Longs. Some of the Kool-Aid drinkers will use a this "temporary", but obvious significant "event" to fan the flames of Peak Oil... there is not any fundamental supply:demand shock on the Crude Oil horizon that I see and once the speculation is washed out of the aftermath of Katrina and Natural Gas & Gasoline Refining/Infrastructure damage is repaired... there is going to be one helluva lot of money to be made on the short-side. I got a very well timed entry on the Short-Side here.... made a couple of nice quick $4-5-$6 hits and momentum "was" to the downside and heading toward what I see is a when, not if - "technical" inevitability - that the OSX will retest it's prior longterm resistance of the OSX 150 as new interim support. But,...Katrina intervened. This is obviously a temporary intervention from Mother Nature. Let Katrina play out...give the spec's all the rope they need and want.... the short trade will only get more attractive, more profitable and will ultimately have better risk:reward metric's. Gasoline and Natural Gas will get very speculative...and lot's of "air" will be created underneath their price levels. - patience. Slider ...a SPIKE in Gasoline over the Labor Day Weekend will be another catalyst for the major paradigm shift in US Consumer Sentiment that is already occuring... and THAT may be the most profitable "trading" theme out of Hurricaine Katrina.

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