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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54523)4/22/2002 5:51:16 PM
From: Steve Lee   of 99280
 
"Steve, you are around there, what are the chances of Le Pen getting to the 25% level?"

I really don't know. You can compare his 17% to previous percentages in the first round to get the idea of the trend, but I don't believe he has made it to the second round before so there is nothing to compare with.

I really doubt he would get 25% of the vote though, considering less than 12% of the electorate voted for him and some of those were likely in protest of either Jospin or the European Union.

I think the problem, if there is one, is that the similar movements in other countries may pick up pace, egged on by what is getting so much press in France. It is unlikely to happen in the UK for 2 reasons:

1) We don't have the level of support for this kind of movement. I believe this point holds true for pretty much the whole of Western Europe, Germany included.

2) We don't have a two round voting system. This means the fringe parties stay on the fringe

The Eastern European countries are suffering economically and it probably won't take much to spark unrest, especially if some nutter comes along to "explain" how immigrants are causing all their woes. This is only a concern, I don't really have the exposure to Eastern Europe to guess what might or might not happen.
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