Some here seem to think ASND will plummet to the low 30's if LU buys someone else. However, with its 4th consecutive good quarter approaching, and its projected growth rate of 25-30% for the forseeable future, its hard to see the stock at 35, which would represent a trailing PE of around 30 and a forward PE of around 20. More likely the stock falls to the 40'ish range, IMO.
Also, who LU buys might have an impact on how much ASND falls. They might not fall as much if LU buys COMS, since there would be no perceived carrier ATM competition for ASND with this buyout. This is probably why LU is not interested in COMS.
NN is a sick pup, still unable to ship their 190 carrier class switch, and with too much legacy equipment.
FORE is a possibility. They certainly know ATM and would be much cheaper than ASND. But they don't have the "A" customer list that ASND does, and this is crucial. I wonder how well LU has done trying to sell its carrier class PM4 RAC against the MAX TNT. Market share surveys seem to indicate they aren't doing too well, even though, on paper, this looks like a very competitive product. This could be indicative of how successful LU might be trying to sell FORE ATM into carriers.
In any event, IMO, LU buys ASND. And after an initial LU price pullback (10%), the PR machines takeover, and WS gets comfortable with a formidable challenger to CSCO; much like TLAB/CIEN rose until CIEN blew up. The price of both stocks rises to a point, where at deal close, ASND shareholder recieve greater than 70/share.
Gary |
