I agree with John Haley. I believe oil prices will rise but I don't believe we'll unexpectedly run out one day and find ourselves with no source of energy. For one thing, there is still lots of oil in Saudi Arabia, and the US has enormous permanent military bases there to ensure that source of supply. For another, alternative sources of oil are already coming online, such as:
-Tar sands, oil shale, and heavy oil. Suncor (T.SU) is producing large volumes of oil from tar sands for around $10/barrel.
-Liquification of natural gas. This also is commercially viable and a rapidly growing business.
Also we can rely on conservation measures. Already we are switching to natural gas, coal, and nuclear for electric power generation and saving the oil for motor fuel. Also we can use new efficient technologies like fuel cells. Fuel cells are currently being used by the US army for heating and electrical power in M1 tanks. The fuel cell heaters are manufactured by Global Thermoelectric - T.GLE. The navy is testing a fuel cell power plant for a ship. That fuel cell is made by Fuel Cell Energy - FCEL. Right now only the military has the bucks to pay for fuel cells, but when they come into mass production the price will drop fast. (Yes I'm ignoring Ballard and Plug Power - that's a whole other story.)
Alternative energy is a huge investment opportunity, IMHO. And of course there are still good buys in the oil patch for now, and especially in natural gas production. OPEC can turn on the oil tap, but we can only get natural gas from pipelines within North America, and the price of natural gas is on its way to doubling this year.
Fun-da-Mental |
