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Biotech / Medical : ImmunoGen
IMGN 31.230.0%Feb 26 4:00 PM EST
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From: Gary Mohilner3/7/2012 11:44:15 PM
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In the last few days AEZS/KERX have gotten positive and negative write up in Seeking Alpha and elsewhere starting with an easily criticized article by Jeremy Richards. Jeremy may run a major investment fund, and he's certainly high on both companies, but he's inclined to go way overboard in his claims of what will happen. In this case he stated results will be known in two weeks on a trial that may not even be ended in two weeks. Had he said 2 months he'd probably be right in that KERX has said the trial should end this month, and data ought to be available in a month or less, but that's not what he said. CNBC misread what he said and indicated approval in two weeks to poor fuel on the fire. After the initial reaction Monday others who saw the flaws in what he said, or who've been admitted shorts all along bled all over Jeremy's logic. While I believe that Jeremy's right about how good the data will be when we get it, the real problem was his loss of credibility in saying we'll have it so soon.

Of course I'm relying on the fact that the control group doesn't suddenly live months longer than historical data shows they live, however, the only other drug currently going for approval in this market got a 1-1/2 months advantage and stopped the trial early for efficacy. I believe they'll get the approval they're seeking, but with the far more serious side effects they won't be used before Perifosine has lost its effectiveness unless further testing demonstrates they all work better together.

The SPA for Perifosine calls for 2 months benefit, but I believe they'll do far better than that.

Gary
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