<If they can make 10x the margin with a die size of 2x K6, that sounds like a very good tradeoff to me.>
But what if they only get like 1/5th the yields?
Or worse, what if your prediction comes true, the business market becomes Celeron-ized, and AMD gets only 2x the margin of K6? Don't laugh, it could happen. Compaq posting lower than expected earnings, mainly due to "weakness in the commercial sector." IBM announces a billion dollar loss in its PC business, then gets a case of sour grapes and announces that the PC market is dead.
I'm personally more optimistic, holding out hope that Dell took some sales away from Compaq and IBM. But you never know; the Asian crisis that hit last year might look tame compared to what could happen this year.
As for die sizes, well, now that I think of it, the K7's probable die size in 0.18 microns isn't going to be that huge at all. If AMD executes the 0.18 micron transition well, ... oh, sorry, that's another IF_AMD scenario.
Tenchusatsu |
