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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (55093)	3/20/2015 10:44:33 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) of 78747

Hi Paul, What is your view on the 5-10 year prospects for offshore? These projects have some of the highest costs/ bbl. That said, as we have seen with oil sands it seems to be forward cost/ bbl that determines whether the IOCs cut projects in the short term. But over the next year we might expect to see contracts not renewed and fleet under-utilization if Brent should reset around 60 for a prolonged period. This seems the price point required to drive out the more leveraged shale producers. At a little over 2x interest coverage I worry HOS would not survive. That they are divesting vessels to reduce the debt load can only be a good thing. Sincerely, Graham

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