You just are not seeing this--maybe because your negative view point won't allow it. There is no other company in this sector with any advantage over Octel, or anyone else. This is a fact. You do not know exactly what Octel's plans for Sierra (upgrade included), IMA, industry standards, etc are. You do not know, David. That is a fact. On a previous post you actually listed some other companies that you think might have an impact in this sector. Well, of those you indicated--all with lofty PEs--all have been back stroking along with this entire sector. Your comments just don't have any real meaning when given the reality that Octel is still inking large contracts for their technology. If Octel is such a dead fish, why is it that only David R sees this?
Here's a real bad taste for you: BSN is going to lose that Sprint contract . . . you know, the one for $100,000,000 plus. Who ran a tight race for that contract and has the Sierra upgrade already out for successful test drives since January?
Who just made large increases in their present market share in Italy, Asia, and South America? These are facts and certainly positive aspects concerning Octel. That's right, an increasing market share yet you refuse to see this as indicated in your posts. Please enlighten us less informed contributers to this thread on the company that is completely superior to Octel, has a better market share, has field proven technology right now that is such an advancement that customers are running to its front doors? Name the company?
You have a low opinion of Octel's management, which is certainly your right. But this same mangement has allowed Octel to gain a large piece of the pie these past ten years. They know more about this sector and the needs for advancing technology better than anyone on this thread.
You have to get over this "Octel is static and can only watch as they fall into ruin" opinion. They've been around for awhile now and certainly have some inkling (however small in your opinion) of the direction the sector is heading. Conjecture is fine, and interesting to debate, but all sides have both positive and negative concerns. The street has certainly indicated a keen interest in Octel ever since the October plunge. We have seen a healthy six point cycle repeated several times now. Even Octel's officers have decided to hold onto their shares--a potentially very bullish indicator. There is a real possibility that they know something we don't.
Of course this entire discussion has only a single bottom line: Whether or not a position in Octel has any promise of substantial return. I've made money since the plunge, and by continuing with a position I'm betting there is more upside risk than downside. Take a hypothetical 10,000 shares starting at tomorrow's opening bell and see where it is in 3-6-9-12 months. My bet is you'd do extremely well.
Greg |
