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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (55242)1/19/2012 8:58:42 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation   of 95574
 
From Briefing.com: 4:14PM Intel beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line (INTC) 25.63 +0.24 : Reports Q4 (Dec) non-GAAP earnings of $0.68 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.64; revenues rose 22% year/year to $13.9 bln vs the $13.72 bln consensus. Co reported GAAP EPS of $0.64. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $12.3-13.3 bln vs. $12.78 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Sees Q1 gross margin percentage of 63% and 64% Non-GAAP (excluding amortization of acquisition-related intangibles), both plus or minus a couple percentage points; Q1 R&D plus MG&A spending of approximately $4.4 billion. Sees amortization of acquisition-related intangibles of approximately $75 million; no impact of equity investments and interest and other. Sees Q1 depreciation of approximately $1.5 billion... INTC sees 2012 gross margin of 64% and 65% Non-GAAP (excluding amortization of acquisition-related intangibles), both plus or minus a few percentage points; sees 2012 Capital Spending $12.1-12.9 bln... "With outstanding execution the company performed superbly, growing revenue by more than $10 billion and eclipsing all annual revenue and earnings records. With a tremendous product and technology pipeline for 2012, we're excited about the global growth opportunities presented by Ultrabook systems, the data center, security and the introduction of Intel-powered smartphones and tablets."

4:10PM Microsoft beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line (MSFT) 28.12 -0.11 : Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.76; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $20.89 bln vs the $20.91 bln consensus. "Coming out of the Consumer Electronics Show, we're seeing very positive reviews for our new phones and PCs, and a strong response to our new Metro style design that will unify consumer experiences across our phones, PCs, tablets, and television in 2012... The Microsoft Business Division reported $6.28 billion in second quarter revenue, a 3% increase from the prior year period, and a 7% increase excluding the prior year recognition of deferred revenue for the Office 2010 technology guarantee program." Microsoft is revising operating expense guidance downward to $28.5 billion to $28.9 billion for the full year ending June 30, 2012.

4:09PM Google misses by $0.95, misses on revs (GOOG) 639.57 +6.66 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $9.50 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.95 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $10.45; revenues rose 27.6% year/year to $8.13 bln vs the $8.41 bln consensus; gross rev +25% to $10.58 bln vs. the $10.91 bln consensus. Revenues from outside of the United States totaled $5.60 billion, representing 53% of total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to 55% in the third quarter of 2011 and 52% in the fourth quarter of 2010... Q4 Paid Click q/q 17%, y/y 34%; Cost-per Click q/q -8%, y/y -8%... Operating expenses, other than cost of revenues, were $3.38 billion in 4Q11, or 32% of revenues, compared to $2.51 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010, or 30% of revenues. As of Dec 31, 2011, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $44.6 billion. On a worldwide basis, Google employed 32,467 full-time employees as of December 31, 2011, up from 31,353 full-time employees as of September 30, 2011.

4:08PM IBM beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides FY12 EPS above consensus (IBM) 180.52 -0.55 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $4.71 per share, $0.09 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $4.62; revenues rose 1.6% year/year to $29.49 bln vs the $29.73 bln consensus. IBM Gross Margin 49.9% vs 49.86% estimates. Co issues upside guidance for FY12, sees EPS of $14.85 vs. $14.81 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co reported Gross Margin 49.9% vs 49.86% estimates. Co also reaffirmed that they are well on track toward their long-term roadmap for operating earnings per share of at least $20 in 2015. Co reporte Software rev up 9%; Global Technology Services revenue up 3%; Global Business Services revenue up 3%, 2 percent adjusting for currency; Services backlog of $141 bln, up $4 billion as reported, up $5 billion adjusting for currency, quarter to quarter; and Systems and Technology revenue down 8%.

4:02PM Ingram Micro sees Q4 EPS above consensus; Names Alain Monie Chief Executive Officer (IM) 18.84 +0.03 : The company issues upside guidance; co said that it expects its non-GAAP earnings for Q4 to exceed the average of analysts' estimates of 55 cents. Separately, co announced the promotion of Alain Monie to chief executive officer, effective tomorrow. Monie, who will also retain his current title of president, succeeds Gregory M. Spierkel, who will remain at the company until April 15, 2012, to assist in the management transition. Monie announced the promotion of Alain Monie to chief executive officer, effective tomorrow. Monie, who will also retain his current title of president, succeeds Gregory M. Spierkel, who will remain at the company until April 15, 2012, to assist in the management transition.

4:30 pm : The broad market notched a new multi-month high as stocks scored varied gains following a flurry of earnings reports and economic releases.

A strong finish to the prior session and decisive buying abroad helped position stocks for a positive open. Market participants also focused on better-than-expected earnings results from several widely-held names, including eBay (EBAY 31.51, +1.17), United Health (UNH 52.32, -1.62), Union Pacific (UNP 112.18, +2.36), Freeport McMoRan (FCX 44.37, -0.10), and Morgan Stanley (MS 18.28, +0.93). Bank of America (BAC 6.96, +0.16) came short of the bottom line consensus, but that was initially shrugged off since the diversified banking and financial services giant showed improvement in other areas. Declaration of bankruptcy by Eastman Kodak (EK 0.36, -0.20) came as little surprise to many.

Economic data was really rather mixed. December consumer prices were unchanged overall, but core prices inched up during by 0.1%. Both measures had been expected to increase by just 0.1%.

Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 50,000 to 352,000, which is considerably less than the tally of 385,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com and the lowest tally since 2008.

Housing starts for December had been widely expected to hit an annualized rate of 673,000 units, but instead came in at a rate of 657,000, down from the prior month rate of 685,000 units.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey for January improved to 7.3 from 6.8 in the prior month, but that was still less than the reading of 10.0 that had been expected among many economists. Another bounce by the euro, which is widely regarded as a barometer of eurozone sentiment, provided stocks with a positive catalyst.

The euro's early retreat to the flat line was shadowed by the S&P 500, but both were able to rebound. By session's end the euro was resting on a 0.8% gain against the greenback and enters Friday with a week-to-date gain of 2.2%.

The broad market's path higher was relatively choppy and without much volume, but nonetheless it enabled the stock market to book its best close since this past summer. The S&P 500 is now up more than 20% from the 52-week intraday low set this past fall and only about 4% below the multi-year high that it set last spring.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials +0.9%, Financials +0.9%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Tech +0.7%, Energy +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.2%, Telecom +0.2%
Unchanged: Health Care
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.8%DJ30 +45.03 NASDAQ +18.62 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +6.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1463/1.99 bln/1040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1955/806 mln/1025

9:06AM Cypress Semi reported that as a result of the discovery phase of its litigation with GSI, the accused products list was expanded in the ongoing ITC action to include GSI's standard Synchronous and ZBT SRAMs (CY) 16.67 : In addition, in a filing with the International Trade Commission on Nov 21, 2011, a proprietary product made by GSI (GSIT) for its largest customer was also added to the suit. The new additions to the ITC action were added to the original complaint filed with the ITC in June 2011, which also alleges infringement by GSI's SigmaQuad-II, SigmaQuad-III and SigmaDDR SRAM families of four Cypress SRAM patents. The Cypress complaint seeks an exclusion order from the ITC that would prevent the importation of all infringing GSI SRAMs

7:33AM Fairchild Semi misses by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus (FCS) 14.53 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.15 per share, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.16; revenues fell 14.7% year/year to $339.4 mln vs the $358.41 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $340-370 mln vs. $383.02 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co states current scheduled backlog is sufficient to achieve the low end of this range. This guidance includes about a 1% impact to sales from the flooding in Thailand.

6:01AM Microsemi announced it has acquired the telecom clock generation, synchronization, packet timing and synthesis business from Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM); terms not disclosed (MSCC) 19.58 :

Texas Instruments (TXN $30.26 +0.03) was upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities and the firm set a target price at $36 based on the emergence of favorable cycle indicators and their belief in the co's ability to drive upside margin leverage going forward.

Needham raises their Novellus (NVLS $36.56 +0.96) tgt to $40 from $37 following the mid quarter update. The firm prefers co over mid/large-cap semi equipment stocks for its strong positions at leading capex spenders, low exposure to second-tiered DRAM customers, improved leverage of its financial model and aggressive buyback program.

12:22 pm S&P Tech Sector Up Almost 1%, Outperforming Broader Market
The tech sector is trading higher today, ahead of gains in the broader market. Semiconductors are showing relative strength in the tech space with the Philly Semi Index trading 1.8% higher. RBCN (+7.4%) is a standout in the chip index. Among other major indices, the S&P 500 is trading 0.5% higher, while the NASDAQ is trading 0.8% higher and the QQQ is 0.8% higher on the session. Among tech bellwethers, ORCL (+0.6%) and CSCO (+1.8%) are showing strength, while VZ (+0.03%) is a notable underperformer.

In earnings last night, FFIV (+12.6%), XLNX (+0.4%), and PLXS (+10.4%) posted quarterly beats and issued upside guidance. Elsewhere, SANM (-3.1%) reported a miss with slightly downside guidance, while EBAY (+4.2%) posted a beat, but guided lower.

In news, Carl Icahn disclosed an 11.64% stake in WBMD (+2.6%) in an amended 13D filing out last night, up from 9.99% reported on 11/25. Icahn believes co should use its cash to repurchase up to $1 bln in shares at $30.00 in a Dutch auction.

Among a busy day in rumors, we are hearing NTAP (+8.3%) takeover chatter, renewed T (+0.2%) for DISH (+2.6%) chatter, Toshiba for SNDK (+0.8%), and AKAM (+1.8%) takeover chatter making the rounds.

Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, FFIV (+12.6%) was upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill and ONNN (+3.4%) was upgraded to Buy at UBS. Among downgrades, XLNX (+0.1%) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank and AMAP (-5.1%) was downgraded to Hold at Jefferies.

FLEX (+4.0%), GOOG (+0.7%), IBM (+0.5%), and MSFT (+0.2%) are the notable names in tech scheduled to report results today after the close.
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