Reality Check? From Briefing:Bottom-Fishing The Net : The problem with bottom-fishing the Internet group is that many of the stocks have yet to form a base. Majority of names have failed to hold key support levels and have simply been blowing with the wind. Price action today, a perfect example. Internet stocks stampede out of negative territory on dovish comments by Fed Governor Gramlich. In less than thirty minutes, EBAY spiked 8 points, YHOO bounced 7 points and Exodus Communications (EXDS) surged 11 points... But with next significant catalyst months away (beginning of anticipation of strong holiday e-commerce season), Net stocks could have difficulty establish bases above November support levels... Briefing.com believes that many of the capital-hemorrhaging 3rd-tier "dot coms" are more likely to go out of of business than return to their all-time highs. Of course, with daytraders still a major force in this market, beaten down issues with small floats will receive the occasional ride on the momentum wave, spiking 50% to 100% over the course of a day or two, before resuming the trek to new lows. In the attached table, we have listed some of the few Internet companies expected to post profits in fiscal 2000, along with certain key ratios. On average, these stocks carry a Price/Earnings ratio of 151 and a Price/Sales ratio of 55. Hardly what we would call value. Moreover, leading names such as Yahoo! and America Online no longer experiencing the break-neck triple-digit growth that investors and analysts used to rationalize their leviathan valuations. In our opinion, the slow realization that many of the more mature names are no longer in the hyper-growth phase, will be the issue that weighs most heavily on the group over the longer-term. Sure, they won't go belly-up, but many of these stocks will lose their wings. - DS
Company P/E Ratio (FY00) *P/S Ratio EPS Growth Rate (Yr/Yr) Decline From High
Yahoo! Corp (YHOO) 222 91 57% 50%
America Online (AOL) 134 24 79% 53%
Mindspring Enterprises (MSPG) 94 9 59% 62%
eBay Inc. (EBAY) 210 117 264% 64%
Excite@Home (ATHM) 219 82 500% 65%
Cisco Systems (CSCO) 63 19 26% 15%
Net.B@nk Inc (NTBK) 61 4.4 88% 78%
Go2Net Inc. (GNET) 224 112 47% 44%
Copper Mountain Networks (CMTN) 132 41 110% 36%
*Data provided by Market Guide |
