Hi Robert,
IMHO, porosity of 4% and up could be pay in the Swan Hills and maximum porosity would likely be in the order of 12-15%. An average pool porosity of 9 or 10% would have a lot of gas packed in it because at ~14,000 feet you're dealing with gas pressures of at least 5,500 psig!!!
If they do have a keeper, I believe that they will definitely see some gas flow as soon as they've swabbed (or, blown) down their load fluid. But, it MAY appear to be a disappointing rate to start. Why??? Formation damage (i.e. plugging of the porosity) during drilling operations may have reduced the flow capacity of the rock near the wellbore. What do they do then?? They acidize and/or they call those "friggin fracers" for an acid frac!!!
I have no idea as to how overbalanced they were when they drilled through the zone. And, I don't know what type(s) of porosity [i.e. intergranular only, some vugular too(??), some fracture too(??)] and permeability that they have encountered in their prospective zone. So, even if we ASSUME that they have a pay zone, any guess by me as to "rate" would be total speculation. However, with formation pressures of over 5,500 psig, we ARE going to see a flare if they've got something!! :-) :-) :-) :-)
Later,
grayhairs |
