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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: E_K_S who wrote (55405)6/3/2015 3:33:18 PM
From: Graham Osborn   of 78673
 
Absolutely. But then you are looking at YTM and trying to predict how fast the rate increase will be over the life of the asset. Another thing you could do is look at the P/E for a similar point in the last FFR cycle:

static1.businessinsider.com

That would give you somewhere in the 10-15 range I think.

I mean get 50 year data for industry multiples say reinsurers. You can just do a Google search and see what sort of multiples some of the largest players had in the 80s vs the 90s for example. As to earnings/ BV TR for Buffett profile companies, no question you need the ability to look forward. That's why Buffett favors a KISS model.
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