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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 172.98

+1.1%

Jan 2 9:30 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (5541)	12/17/2000 11:52:38 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (5) of 197074

slacker711, that article is a great example of why I think WCDMA may be years from getting off the ground. What we know for sure is QCOM's claim to WCDMA IPRs. Is QCOM then going to sit still and allow some Japanese body to arbitrarily combine QCOM's IPRs into a pool with a maximum allowable royalty rate of 5%? At this moment, I suppose no one has really challenged QCOM's position in the market by introducing unlicensed CDMA products, regardless of which flavor. When the time comes, assuming starting next year, there are going to be the mothers of all international lawsuits. I think most Americans are raised with the believe that there exists laws for every minute detail covering every aspect of everything under the sun. The recent Florida and US Supreme Courts have demonstrated otherwise. Now add a few hundred nations, each with (or without) their own set of laws pertaining to telecom and 3G, I think the probability of a quick solution and agreement is almost nil. Fortunately for QC shareholders, the first battleground may be in the US where we do have competing technologies ready to evolve next year. Not only are the cdma2000 supporters technically superior, the US courts are probably more predictable and favorable, in the event that AWS or others who may attempt to circumvent QC's IPRs. The second factor could be China. If China makes a committment to cdma2000 and wCDMA, using the enormous Chinese market as testing ground. Look at the time line. In a few years, when 3G becomes reality, China may be a competitor. There are certainly tell tale signs of China's intentions. I would be shocked if the Koreans and Japanese do not see that sleeping dragon becoming more and more restless. Just like Eric said, I think there will be something for us to talk about for the next three years. <ggg> Ramsey

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