The World Trade Organization predicts that international trade will fall between 13% and 32% in 2020.
Brazil, however, surprised in the period with the smallest variation in flow. The country was the only country in the G20, a group of the twenty largest economies in the world, to expand its export volume in a very adverse scenario.
In the Brazilian case, there is no drop in demand from Asia. Brazil exported even more to that region in the first months of the year than usual.
We are already the largest exporter of soybeans, orange juice, beef, chicken, coffee and sugar. We are among the largest in the export of iron ore, pork, soybean meal and corn.
These are products with little elastic demand and which will continue to be highly sought after worldwide. Brazil has already become the breadbasket of the world and we are, together with the United States, a true agro-export superpower.
Good news in foreign trade
Brazil was the only G20 country to increase exports this year
By Murillo de Aragão - Updated on 8 May 2020, 10:52 - Published on 8 May 2020, 06:00
Soybean Dirceu Portugal / Fotoarena
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Amid the darkness of the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus, points of light shine on the Brazilian economy. The disclosure of the balance of foreign trade in the first quarter of this year brought exceptional news.
The World Trade Organization predicts that international trade will fall between 13% and 32% in 2020. Brazil, however, surprised in the period with the smallest variation in flow. The country was the only country in the G20, a group of the twenty largest economies in the world, to expand its export volume in a very adverse scenario.
In the Brazilian case, there is no drop in demand from Asia. Brazil exported even more to that region in the first months of the year than usual.
In fact, even without considering China and Japan, the two largest Asian economies, Brazil sells more to the rest of the continent than to the United States and Mexico combined. With China and Japan in the account, the result is spectacular.
The picture is even more positive if we consider that Asia must come out of the crisis before other regions of the planet. Continuing to buy from Brazil, especially protein, will help us minimize the effects of a recession.
In the period examined, we have already broken historical records for the sale of pork and beef to China. Chinese demand for iron ore has also not declined. To top it off, the recessive picture pushed sea freight down. Thus, exporting became cheaper.
Both during the pandemic and in the wake of the crisis, the world will continue to need food
It's great news. Probably at the end of the year we will have the largest trade surplus in history in our relations with China. In part, the drop in our imports. But the increase in our exports is very positive.
We are already the largest exporter of soybeans, orange juice, beef, chicken, coffee and sugar. We are among the largest in the export of iron ore, pork, soybean meal and corn. These are products with little elastic demand and which will continue to be highly sought after worldwide. Brazil has already become the breadbasket of the world and we are, together with the United States, a true agro-export superpower.
Being optimistic in times of economic tragedy is a risk. But the cold analysis of our international trade data in view of our potential indicates that, at least in this segment, we will have positive news.
Nouriel Roubini and Ray Dalio, two exponents of international finance, believe that the world may experience a major depression in the years to come. Exports of food goods and other items in which Brazil has comparative advantages will be important for the country to avoid this scenario. For, both during the pandemic and in the wake of the resulting crisis, the world will continue to need Brazilian food, which is characterized as a favorable strategic situation for us.
Finally, analyzing the prospects for our international trade, Brazilian foreign policy must, in the country's best interest, be guided by pragmatic decisions that meet our strategic objectives. |
