The normal way that brokerage analyst recommendations are distributed is as follows. First, the internal traders get the information. Second, the most valued large customers get it. The retail customers are third. Last comes the release to the general public.
Public releases of upgrades are almost always preceded by strong buying from the first three categories. Downgrades are preceded by selling.
If UBS saw something impressive in last Friday's news (11/21), then there should have been strong buying this week, prior to a public upgrade. But Monday's close was lower than last Fridays, Tuesday was lower still, and today certainly is not showing much buying. That makes me wonder if a downgrade isn't in the works.
The briefing to analysts on 11/21 may have been useful for people who have never followed the company. However, it didn't really contain any new information. So, if the fundamentals have not changed, but the stock jumps up over 25%, which way are they going to change their recommendations?
Of course, this is pure speculation. I don't know for sure that a downgrade is coming. |
