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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)

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To: Cacaito who wrote (5567)	3/20/2004 1:24:49 PM
From: Qualified Opinion	Read Replies (2) of 10345

Cacaito, obviously, any estimate is a guess even by analysts. I'm using a high estimate of peak sales revenue on Antegren for MS of $2.5 billion of which Elan receives 50% or $1.25 billion. It assumes the total MS market size for all drugs for MS to eventually grow to $6 - $7 billion. The total market size is higher than Biogen/Idec's potential market size of $4 - $5 billion for all drugs which includes current sales of $3 billion, drop-offs and naive but excludes secondary progressives and market growth. I believe it will take several years to reach peak sales like other blockbuster drugs. It should be discounted back to the present. Therefore, speculation can reign until Biogen/Idec and Elan give their forecasts upon approval of Antegren. P.S. - Current market cap is $8.94 billion (447 million sharss * $20) which assumes conversion of the convertible notes. Rob

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