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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve
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To: Joe NYC who wrote (5569)12/9/2000 11:55:25 PM
From: TraderGreg  Read Replies (2) of 6710
 
<<There is no scenario under which Bush could win that would satisfy his opponents.>>

That is simply ridiculous. The vote differential in FL was under 1/100 of 1%. As a student of statistics, I can tell you that a sample of 5,800,000 can produce a 99.5% confidence that the actual vote differential is no more than 1/20 of 1%. This is a sample size and confidence level that greatly exceeds even FDA standards for safety.

Yet, despite this insanely high level of confidence and sample size, this otherwise tight estimate was FIVE times the actual vote differential.

And at the time the recount commenced this morning, the 154 vote differential represented 1/400 of 1%, so the confidence standard was TWENTY times larger than the observed differential.

There is no way anyone should be satisfied with this outcome until all the votes are recorded.

TG
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