Bush's Challenger Fares Well in Poll, but Voters
Give Democrat Weak Marks on Central Issue
By JOHN HARWOOD and DAVID ROGERS
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
July 23, 2004; Page A4
BOSTON -- John Kerry enters next week's Democratic Convention in a better position than any presidential challenger in a generation -- but still needing to show more strength on the national-security issues that underpin President Bush's support.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows the Massachusetts senator in a virtual dead heat with Mr. Bush as Democrats gather here to nominate him as their presidential candidate in the Nov. 2 election. Not since Ronald Reagan's 1980 bid to oust President Carter, according to Gallup, has a challenger approached his nominating convention even with or ahead of a White House incumbent.
See the full results of the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Also, view the methodology and see past poll results.
Yet the poll also shows that voters remain wary of Mr. Kerry on national security, the issue looming over the contest as U.S. troops remain in Iraq, and post-Sept. 11 fears of new terrorist attacks at home haven't faded. Just 36% of those surveyed rate Mr. Kerry highly on "being strong in protecting American interests overseas," while 35% give him poor marks. By contrast, 62% rate him highly on "being smart and intelligent," and 48% credit him with being "knowledgeable and experienced enough" for the presidency.
Thus, lifting Mr. Kerry's standing on national security is crucial to his chances, according to Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal/NBC poll with the organization of his late Republican counterpart, Robert Teeter. "It's a high hurdle, but it's not a pole vault," said Mr. Hart.
With this in mind, both the coming convention and Mr. Kerry's campaign stops before he arrives in Boston on Wednesday are built on the theme that he is best able "to make America strong at home and respected in the world." He returns today to the military hospital where he was born in Colorado during World War II. And he will next follow his own "American Freedom Trail" with appearances that celebrate the great explorations by military men of the West and outer space, as well as his Naval service as a swift-boat officer in Vietnam in 1969.
Similarly, Mr. Kerry's response to yesterday's 9/11 Commission report was swift: "We can do better. We must do better. We have to act now," he said of the shortcomings in U.S. intelligence and homeland security. "The terrorists will not wait for us, and we must not wait for them."
He added: "This is not a time for bickering. It is not a time for politics." And if adequate progress hasn't been made by next winter, he said, "If I am elected president ... I will not wait a single day more. I will lead."
With his war record and years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr. Kerry isn't without national-security credentials. In fact, much of his early appeal to Democrats was built on the argument that he was best equipped to counter a wartime president on the subject. Mr. Kerry has since been hurt by Republican attacks and his own public agonizing over the right course in Iraq -- before and after voting for the resolution authorizing war.
But the new poll suggests that the public itself shares some of the same conflicts about Iraq these days. The Republican Party's advantage on handling Iraq has dwindled to eight percentage points from 27 points in January. A 47% plurality says removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq hasn't been worth the financial and human costs. By 56%-40%, voters say Mr. Bush should have done more to make sure that prewar intelligence on Iraqi weapons programs was accurate.
The Journal/NBC poll of 813 registered voters, conducted July 19-21, carries a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in either direction.
The survey also contains some encouraging news for Mr. Bush. After seeing his job-approval ratings erode gradually since January amid violence and scandal over prisoner abuse in Iraq, Mr. Bush has rebounded, albeit moderately.
A 48% plurality now approve of his performance, while 46% disapprove; in June, a 49% plurality gave him thumbs down. Similarly, the proportion who say Mr. Bush doesn't deserve re-election edged down to 47% from 50% last month; 46% say his performance merits a second term.
The contours of national opinion overall, however, remain unusually auspicious for the party out of power. By 48%-36%, voters say the country is on the wrong track rather than headed in the right direction. A robust 58% majority sees the U.S. economy heading for trouble rather than prosperity. After giving Mr. Bush's Republican Party a slight edge on handling the economy in January, voters now say Mr. Kerry's Democrats would do a better job by an eight-percentage-point margin.
Within an electorate polarized along partisan lines for months, Mr. Kerry has gotten only a moderate lift so far from the selection of Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, a former primary rival, as his running mate. The Kerry-Edwards ticket draws 45% support to 47% for Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, comparable to Mr. Kerry's standing last month; independent Ralph Nader and his running mate, Peter Camejo, draw 2%.
But the intensity of Mr. Kerry's support has edged up to levels comparable to Mr. Bush's; 72% of those backing Mr. Kerry now say they "definitely" will vote for him, up from 64% in June.
Mr. Kerry's potential for growth among next week's national-convention audience lies in the significant chunk of Americans whose views of the Democratic candidate remain unformed. One-third of the electorate says it still knows little "about John Kerry and what he stands for;" one-fifth are neutral in their opinions about him.
Most significant, 42% of voters who are not now supporting Mr. Kerry say there's at least some chance they will end up voting for him. At 34%, Mr. Bush's pool of potential converts is smaller.
To attract those potential swing voters, Mr. Hart says, the Democratic candidate must shore up his weaknesses on national security and on "values," an issue Mr. Kerry has been addressing head-on in recent stump appearances.
"I think strength is defined in a lot of different ways," Mr. Kerry says, and he hopes to answer both the national-security and values questions by challenging voters with his vision of "a stronger America" at home, as well as overseas. Thus, at a National Urban League meeting in Detroit yesterday, he melded the words of Martin Luther King and John F. Kennedy by urging the audience to "climb the mountain" together to social justice, but also to remember, "If we stand still, freedom stands still."
Along the same lines, an appearance tomorrow in Iowa brings Mr. Kerry back to the state that not only gave life to his campaign, but is on the path of one of his great loves -- the Lewis and Clark expedition of the early 19th century. "I am a Lewis and Clark freak," he once told young voters, and like Thomas Jefferson then, Mr. Kerry dreams of being a president who can lead America into a new "Corps of Discovery" today.
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