SR,
I hope you are right.
however i think that the only thing holding up the HIFD is the lack of manufacturing capability. Sony usually builds a robotic factory to build devices in this formfactor (i.e. Walkman), and it becomes to them a simple pricing/volume game to breakeven.
Everything is fixed cost/fixed volume.
If you are IOM and know this of Sony, how would you attack them?
yes, figure out the factory capacity, and cost, then price the zip below the HiFD.
The question whether people will pay a 30% premium for the extra 100mb capacity, I would guess as negative. Maybe 10% premium.
With zip already selling around $75, Sony has to wring out costs in its manufacturing structure.
A 300,000 units drive factory (2 shift) costing $30mm amortized over 5 years will add $20/unit in fixed costs. A 3 shift 500,000 unit factory will lower the fixed cost to $12. A 1 shift 100,000 unit sales increases fixed cost to $60 - uneconomical.
This is what happened to Imation/Superdisk, and Syquest.
So, whenever Sony does come out with its product, the key is the contain the volume.
BL |
