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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 265.49

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2:11 PM EST

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To: advocatedevil who wrote (55869)	11/19/2001 12:26:04 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Ad, I have been reading some of Zeev's posts on other threads and he seems to be leaning to Jacob's idea of a second recession next year, midyear just when the bulls are looking for an accelleration of the recovery. My feeling is that the recovery will be evident earlier than conventional wisdom would have it, albeit anemic and the midyear POP UP may or may not happen. Your thoughts! In the bearish models oil prices start going up again, housing market bubllfies and bursts. Consumers who might spend christmas time may really pull in their horns after this. Of course greenie is pulling out all the stops which will negate some of the prospective decline in the bearish case. However in any case in their view we will have a valuation problem even if slow growth continues. On the other hand the bulls expect a boomlet cause by the fed where real growth takes off. mike

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