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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!!
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To: Michael M who wrote (55965)9/25/1999 4:38:00 AM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (1) of 108807
 
Eye of the storm?

Probably. The Indonesian army won't openly attack the peacekeeping force, and the militias won't either, as long as the foreigners are in Dili with reinforcements close at hand. The time when the nastiness could start is when the foreign force starts to move out into the countryside. Watch for an "incident" that will allow the Indonesians to "rethink" their acceptance of the peacekeeping force.

do you know anything about extent of demographic shift under Indonesian domination?

I know that large numbers of outsiders have been encouraged to settle in Timor, and that many of these are now militia members. I couldn't provide numbers.

Does colonial history (culture and religion) give rise to any natural affinity between Philippines and E. Timor?

The average Filipino knows nothing about East Timor and cares less. The left has occasionally protested the Indonesian activities there, but nobody listens to them anymore. The official Philippine view will line up with the West, whence come the goodies, but privately the main figures will actually be pro-Indonesia. There is a large Muslim secessionist movement in the southern Philippines, and a regional precedent for secession with foreign assistance could stir it up again. And in general, foreign intervention in the region is not looked upon kindly. And anyone who mentions "human rights" is automatically suspected of left sympathies, at least among the military and much of the political structure.

There is a small Philippine contingent in Timor now. Showing the flag.

The situation in Jakarta is difficult to assess, especially in regard to its effect on Timor. There are groups in Jakarta who will demonstrate at any provocation. Not too long ago those protests expanded to include a much larger portion of the population and force Suharto out. I don't personally think that Timor will generate that kind of critical mass - it simply has too little impact on the ordinary Jakarta resident - but I could be wrong. It will make the military more paranoid and withdrawn.

Megawati is lining up right with the military on Timor, did even during the campaign. Habibie is definitely history; my own guess is that the military will let Megawati sit in the chair, and try to pull her strings.

We'll see.

I don't see the kind of countrywide bloodbath that happened last time; the lines just aren't that clearly drawn. But Timor could get very ugly indeed.
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