>>Do you think any of this is likely?
Nobody knows, of course, but I think your first phase decline is very likely.
I think we're in a bear market. The last bear market we had was in 1990, and it was of the cyclical (not super-serious) variety, unlike the 1973-74 secular bear market which was caused by the first oil shock, an over-built commercial real-estate market, a huge inventory bubble, and finally topped off by Watergate.
Anyway, back to 1990. I remember during the 1990 break (which really took only 5 1/2 months from August to January) Microsoft, Dell (and I think Compaq) got hammered during the first wave down but made their bottoms there (in early October as I remember), long before the rest of the market. Then, as the general market continued lower in successive waves, they made sideways moves with a succession of slightly higher lows.
That's the kind of behavior to look for with stocks you want to own. A panic can kill everything off for a while, but the resilient names are the next leadership. I bet Yahoo will act that way, like it has this Fall.
If we're not in a bear market, then the correction ended on Christmas Eve, and we're all complete fools not to be long Yahoo...however, the Purchasing Managers' Report last Friday was ominous and small stocks were getting hit badly. |
