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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Rarebird who wrote (560)	9/2/1997 3:46:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	of 5676

Rarebird, In itself, your reasoning make sense, but I have difficulties correlating this with the charts. IMO the decision point will be SPX 820. If we get a strong bounce there with mid caps (Russell 2000) reaching new highs then it's scenario B, with final blow off that will eventualy drag even the Dow to new highs. Therefore I can agree with this >> To get this type of blow off, investors need to lose all confidence in the Blue Chips. With the pre-announcement by Coke and Gillete, this process got underway. To complete this loss of confidence in the Blue Chips, investors will need to see a 20% decline in the S@P while the Russell remains flat or trends higher. What's gonna happen here is that after this leg down amongst the large caps is over, investors are going to throw most of their money at the small caps. What I cannot comprehend is the Russell and S&P going their seperate ways NOW. ATG

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